POST said 05/20, 07:51 PM
Obama may possibly have a difficult situation to deal with going to November. Many people (superdelegates) have endorsed him as a matter of process, but John Edwards wants more than just that. His endorsement comes at a price. Vice President job. He hopes he is the strongest contender for the job if Obama is to discard Clinton. I think he is a liability than a gain for Obama.
Lets assume he has the influence Obama needs,
1) support of the blue collar vote, white elderly people (women in particular)
2) his delegates will automatically vote for Obama
The fact is:
a) The recent survey indicates that "only 11 percent of respondents who picked Edwards" in the primaries "had a favorable impression of Obama compared to 56 percent who viewed him unfavorably".
b) Edwards's supporters are the same demographic as Hillary and would rather go with her than Obama.
This means that he is more of a liability than an asset. He only brings his 1 superdelegate vote.
DonkeyDude said 05/21, 01:43 PM
Your argument strays from Edwards' motive (wanting to be VP) to an analysis of the strength of an Obama/Edwards ticket. I will focus on the Thesis/Subject, which is Edwards' motive.
Simply put, Edwards' motive in endorsing Obama is not to be selected as VP.
Evidence:
1) Edwards has ruled out running as his VP:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/16
/edwards-flatly-rules-out-running-with-obama/
Unless you can explain why he would rule it out, just as VP discussions are revving up, for some ulterior purpose, I think this is pretty persuasive.
2) Edwards waited to endorse until it was all but certain Obama would be the nominee. If Edwards wanted to be Obama's running mate, he would have endorsed him as soon as it became evident Obama would win. He did not, instead waiting until after even his home state of NC voted.
Not that I need to posit another theory as to Edwards' motives, but I will for the hell of it. I think he wants to be named Attorney General. He has said so publicly, so I'm not claiming to be clairvoyant here. He waited to endorse for the same reasons as Gore and Carter: they feel that their high-profile endorsements would only serve to divide the party
POST said 05/21, 03:21 PM
I base my conclusions on historic events. In 2004, he ruled out the possibility of running as Kerry's VP. As we all know, he did not stick to his word. I take Edwards's ruling out of this possibility as a mere act of modesty. No one ever voice their desire for the job, while no one ever turns it down.
Currently, his political career is not so glossy, VP spot would give it some much needed boost. The reason he endorsed late, (I can only speculate) he hoped to be safe with whoever makes the Dems nominee, and endorsing early would have been an uncalculated gamble.
You think "he wants to be named Attorney General"? I'll let you argue that one.
DD, what I'm arguing here is that:
1) while Edwards over rates his popularity and political status, looking at the polls, it seems that it is insignificant and may render him a liability for Obama.
2) If he does not get a VP appointment to keep his political fire burning, he will simply disappear in the skeem of things.
3) He offers nothing more than his 1 superdelegate vote (sorry to sound repetitive on this 3rd point)
DonkeyDude said 05/21, 05:26 PM
You say that nobody ever voices their desire for the position and nobody ever turns it down. That is demonstrably incorrect. Many people have voiced their desire (or at least openness) to be a running mate, most recently Mitt Romney.
Your admitted speculation about the "glossiness" of his political career doesn't carry much weight, as it contradicts Edwards' own statements regarding his interests, which are much more credible. He has stated, publicly and privately apparently, that he wants the Attorney General position. That would add a lot of "gloss" to his political and legal careers.
In response to your numbered points:
1) This is not relevant to the debate topic you put forth.
2) This is notably not true, especially if he becomes AG. Political losses do not necessarily lead to obscurity or failure. Just look at Al Gore.
3) This is not true. As youngdem pointed out earlier, his superdelegates are going for Obama as well. On a more important note, his populist message resonated with a lot of Clinton's supporters. When he dropped out, she took up some of his anti-poverty rhetoric, which clearly earned her some support among his millions of admirers. But this too is off-topic.
POST said 05/22, 07:41 PM
I note your point about Edwards' supers, but there is no evidence that his delegates are going to do the same. Remember, these are people who voted against Obama, even when Edwards was gone, they either voted for Hillary or kept Edwards on the ballot (West Virginia).
He is not going to refuse the offer of VP, but I doubt it will be offered to him. As far as I understand your previous input, you are only speculating about the AG job: "I think he wants to be named Attorney General" you said in your previous argument. This is what he said according to ABC news (online): [On the possibility of being picked as an attorney general nominee, Edwards told reporters, "I don't have any thoughts about any of that."] http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/edwards-not-int.html
So if he won't take VP, and is not thinking AG, I guess Edwards will be unemployed this coming year. He is an ambitious guy, and won't just sit and watch events pass by, leaving him behind.
DonkeyDude said 05/22, 11:01 PM
Your thesis is that his desire to be VP caused him to endorse Obama. I countered by saying he expressly said he does not want to be Obama's running mate; and if that were his motive, he would have endorsed months earlier, when it seemed more meaningful and could have actually helped Obama. Now it just looks like obligatory party unification. I don't see how you've really countered any of that.
The AG point was taken from a recent CNN article I read. But his interest in the position is, as I mentioned earlier, not relevant to this discussion.
And I wouldn't go so far as to say that if he doesn't get VP or AG he "will be unemployed this upcoming year." Again, look at Al Gore, who holds neither of those positions. Or Bill Clinton, really. Being in the political spotlight can bring a lot of lucrative opportunities.
So why does donkey dude get to debate you and not me?
theyoungdem | 05/21/08
Report Offensive CommentYou just want me to call you "MD" now. Like Doogie Howser. Or because you really like the state of Maryland. . . .
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/22/08
Report Offensive CommentI must have done worse than I thought on that animals debate...
theyoungdem | 05/22/08
Report Offensive CommentPlease keep it clean. Bad words will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.
To quote Amy Poehler on SNL: "On Wednesday John Edward officially endorsed himself for Vice President!" - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Edwards said he doesn't want it, but i think he does!!!
gopdiva | 05/21/08
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