ELEPHANT-DONKEY.com

LiveforReason said 02/25, 04:59 PM
Let's set the context for the 2008 election. George W Bush has been in the White House for eight years. The Democrats have seen the budget surplus they left vanish, and they have seen conservative policies expand across the board. Our country has waged an unpopular war and in the process the Democrats have been vilified for their beliefs. Make no mistake, the Democrats are hungry for the Presidency

As a result of this Republican dominance, the party base has unified to the left. The proof is in the candidates: Barack Obama achieved Most Liberal Senator according to the National Journal; and Hillary Clinton one of the most identifiable liberals in the US. The polls have been close because of the similarities in their policies, not any spilt in the party.

If the nominee is decided by super delegates some will be upset, but in the end the candidate will unify the party. Clinton and Obama have said they would support the nominee, and the party leaders aren't going to let 08 slip through their fingers. They couldn't have a better condition for winning the general election if they dreamed it. Overall the political similarities of the candidates will prevent any significant spilt.

LiveforReason said 02/25, 07:50 PM
Despite the obvious contention for the nomination, the odds of a division are little to none because there is no one for these dissenting Democrats to turn to.

As mentioned before, both Obama and Clinton have stated in numerous debates that they would rally around the party's nominee no matter the circumstances. That rules either of them out. Who else would lead the split? Despite his moderate label, McCain will never cut into a significant portion of the Democratic base because of his pro-war stance. The only other possible option, Ralph Nader, is a hated figure for many Democrat voters and leaders because of the 2000 election. Party leaders will make their best efforts to restrict him from many states' ballots, as he was in '04. With little alternatives, the Democratic base will chose to unite under their nominee.

This is even if there are enough voters willing to make the split. In exit polls, consistently around 80% voters have stated they would be satisfied with either candidate. This number is typical to other elections, and is hardly enough to fuel a party split under any circumstances.

LiveforReason said 02/25, 10:16 PM
No one is arguing whether people would be upset or not. They would. However, when it comes to the General Election the Democratic Party will be able to come together.

First, by looking at the facts we cannot determine whether there would even be enough voters to cause a split. The Exit polls from FOX, CNN, MSNBC, RealClearPolitics show that the overwhelming majority of Democratic voters are pleased with both of the candidates. If there aren???t enough dissatisfied voters, there is no possibility of a split. This is not based on faith, this is based on the available facts.

Supposing there were a sizeable amount of voters, there still is no alternative candidate. The greatest possibility of a divide would occur if Clinton or Obama were to lead it. For the third time, the possible nominees have said they will not split. This makes the possibility of a split a long shot.

As of now, there is nothing that would suggest McCain, or other major candidate would attract Dems. Remember, the debate is about Democratic party voters. The Facts show that the desire for the White House, the satisfaction of the voters, and the lack of an alternative will keep the Democratic Party together.