Whichever party loses this election will collapse.
Kamisama said 11/13, 01:26 PM
This is the easiest election for the Democrats to win - they have a ridiculously unpopular Republican President in office, no Vice President running, and a whole mass of popular Democratic candidates to field. The Republican party, however, has a score of candidates that are fairly socially liberal, such as Rudy Guliani and John McCain, or else don't meet the normal "neocon" guidelines (mormon Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson who won't repeal abortion laws), giving them a good chance at courting more moderate Republicans.
Should a moderate Republican win the nomination, right-wing convervatives will probably try to rally behind another candidate who they feel better fits their views. Should a right-wing candidate with the nomination, moderates will stream over to an independent, such as Michael Bloomberg, or to the Democratic candidate. If the Republicans fail, with either choice, to win, neocons will blame moderates for 'abandoning' them and form a different party.
If the Democratic candidate, whoever it is, can't beat the GOP after the Bush years, it will signal that the Democrats just don't have the power to win, even if they're handed the seat, and the party will collapse.
Austhus said 11/13, 02:26 PM
It's premature to say that "whoever loses will be gone, period." Sure, the losing party in this next election could very well be headed for the political grave. But I highly doubt it.
I don't doubt for one minute that, after this election, both parties will need to do a great deal of "soul-searching" to figure out their identity. For the Democrats, they need to decide if they will continue with the "big government" model they're traditionally associated with, or to shift the platform to a more "globalization dove" attitude that is prevalent in the party.
For the Republicans, the split is between the moderate, fiscal conservatives and the far-right, social conservatives. Both groups have been waging internal battles for some time now across the country, fighting for their own ideas.
However, neither party will be dead. Party infighting is nothing new; look back at the Democratic National Convention of 1968. New identities will be discovered and the parties themselves may look considerably different than they do today, but they will survive.
Kamisama said 11/17, 04:00 AM
Forfeited Turn
Austhus said 11/20, 04:00 AM
Forfeited Turn
Austhus said 11/21, 04:00 AM
Forfeited Turn
Austhus said 11/22, 04:00 AM
Forfeited Turn
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Though a loss in the upcoming election may not neccessarily spell disaster for either the Dems or the GOP I think(if the current trends continue and the policies of the two party system continue to be increasingly dominated by the extremes of the respective parties) that there could be a major collapse/fragmentation in either/both the parties in the near future if moderates cannot reassert more control of the party's direction. I think we could easily see our two party system fragment into three or possibly four parties with the "extremists" forming two polar opposite groups and then either a big, ambiguous group that occupies the moderate stance(such as the Democratic-Republican Party waaaayy back in the 1830's) or this big moderate party could instead be two seperate moderate parties that would represent moderate liberals and moderate conservatives, respectively. I just hope we dont go the way of the European Democracies where there are so many different parties that you have to form coalition governments because no one party could receive a majority of the vote.
gswitzerland | 11/15/07
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