Barack Obama will not win in the General Election.
alexon96 said 04/16, 05:55 PM
If Barack Obama is the democratic nominee, a big majority of Hillary Clinton"s supporters will vote for McCain. Barack Obama will not be able to get more whites, men,latino's, women, and other groups except for African-Americans. John McCain will get more votes and probably be the next president unless Hillary Clinton will be the democratic nominee
DonkeyDude said 04/17, 06:31 PM
Barack Obama is more electable than Hillary Clinton. To support this point, I shouldn't have to go much further than citing the popular vote, the delegate count, number of states won, and his momentum. This, even despite the irrefutable impact of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos.
And Byah made a couple good points below before I had a chance to respond, notably that Hillary's supporters will come around once Barack is the nominee. They have incentive to say otherwise, as that might pressure the superdelegates to overthrow the will of the people and vote for her, but it is highly unlikely to happen. There is little daylight between their policies, especially when compared to McCain's (McSame).
Blacks only make up some 10% of the population and are not a reliable voting bloc. So obviously Obama has been winning over some groups other than blacks to have the insurmountable lead he has. Think about it before you reply.
And to those who would say that the youth vote won't turn out in November, wake up and smell the coffee. It's a new day. With the advent of Myspace & Facebook, all the media frenzy, etc, young voters will continue to vote - either for Obama or against Bush's 3rd term
alexon96 said 04/17, 09:18 PM
A lot of young voters also support McCain. Obama would not get more of the whites, which most of them will support McCain. About Hillary Clinton's supporters, some of them will probably vote for Obama. But a good percentage of them will vote for either McCain, an independent or not vote at all. Same thing will happen except vise-versa if Clinton is the nominee.
The people from Michigan and Florida will vote for McCain or an independent because Obama did not let their voices be heard in the Primaries. I also think that most voters will think about Obama. He tells everyone about change, but maybe he won't really do anything about the US. George Bush promised us change and a better USA and that is why the people voted for him. What did he give us? He gave us change, but in a bad way. I think voters will think that over.
DonkeyDude said 04/17, 09:25 PM
Well, it is exactly that reason that people will vote for Obama over McCain: Bush's policies have left us in shambles, and Americans want change. McCain, in an attempt to rally the conservatives to his side, has shifted farther right in his "beliefs," and now (to the extent he actually stands for anything) he represents a continuation of Bush's failed policies. Obama's brand is change. McCain himself has said that he has staked the success of his campaign on the Iraq War. American sentiment shows that that may not have been wise.
As far as your conclusory determination that "Obama would not get more of the whites," I do not know where to begin. Your perspective - while ignoring actual trends in many states - seems to belie prejudiced beliefs that you are projecting onto America as a whole. I think (and truly hope) that we have come farther than that.
alexon96 said 04/18, 05:01 PM
That is not the point I was trying to make. Bush promised change to everyone and that is why the people voted for him. Bush didn't give us any good change. Obama always promises us change. What if he will be just like Bush and not give us anything. The voters will think that over. About the white vote, I am saying that against McCain, Obama would probably not get more of the white vote.
DonkeyDude said 04/18, 05:24 PM
1) So your point is that because Bush -- the worst president in history by most accounts -- promised change but did not deliver, people won't buy into the promise of change anymore? Have you SEEN Obama's campaign over the last 15 months, and how wildly positively people have responded to it? I can't believe you're making that speculative point with a proverbial straight face.
2) So Obama can court the white vote against a white woman, but not against a white man? If you are going to make points that are this blatantly conclusory and prejudiced, at least keep them specific to the candidates and not so generalized. I.e., Obama is not just "a black man." And McCain, for his part, is not just "a white man." They both have specific pro's and con's. For instance, McCain, if elected, would be the oldest new president in US history. That hurts his chances, even among whites. Additionally, his positions have flip-flopped, a fact that has alienated conservative Republicans greatly. Last time I checked, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter were extremely white. He's also a war monger, which turns off many Americans, regardless of race.
The best person for the job will win, regardless of race/sex.
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Byah is a genius. I find myself responding to his comments quite favorably and I've only been registered on this site for about... oh, 30 minutes.
MarkW2525 | 04/17/08
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Byah definitely is a smart guy. Not too smart, I hope, as I'm currently debating him about capital punishment. :)
DonkeyDude | 04/17/08
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Did you watch the debates last night? When asked if Obama could beat McCain, Hillary's response was "Yes. Yes. Yes."
DonkeyDude | 04/17/08
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almost none of your claims, alexon, seem to be backed up by facts. actually, For example, Barack does better amongst white men than Hillary. Hillary has never shown that she can carry that demographic.
Skipper04 | 04/18/08
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America needs to elect the best possible person to lead/unite this country. Whether that person is black, white, male, or female should not make a difference.
smalltownPA | 04/18/08
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I think Dude is just obsessed with attacking Hillary. You seem to be blinded, but time will tell doooooode.
CRISP | 04/18/08
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I think Hillary won that debate. The only negative point was the Bosnia question. I suppose people are happy to knock you hardder when you apologise. The rest of the debate, Hillary outclassed Barack. He seems to do better on written speeches while Hillary does exceptionally well on thinkin on her feet and speeking off the cuff. I must give it to Obama though, he sounded better on the taxes question, though not specific.
CRISP | 04/18/08
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I actually think Obama tends to perform better in debates, which should come as no surprise, but I agree that Clinton performed better on Wednesday night. That is, if you overlook the fact that all she does is try to destroy Obama instead of talk about why she's a good candidate. She reminds me of a crab, in a bucket full of crabs, trying to get out of the bucket by pulling on the leg of a crab who's already almost out. Screw the other crab, I'm getting out by any means necessary!
DonkeyDude | 04/18/08
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Not true Dude. She doesn't pull anyone down. Barack keeps hurting his own campaign through being too casual and reckless on a PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. Everyone, start going for him after that. If Hillary didn't she'd be stupid. Its a matter of time before he hurts himself again by another badly worded scandal. Sencondly she has spent more time talking about issues and why she's a good candidate. Its just that these issues are not sexy enough for the media, so they go for any opportunity they get of her refering to Barack.
CRISP | 04/19/08
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Pat, sometimes you need to concede obvious facts to gain credibility and traction when making points in a debate. To say that "she doesn't pull anyone down" is, I think, absurd and hurts your image as a knowledgeable, objective person. Look, she probably is qualified and would be a better candidate than most. But her ENTIRE campaign has been about back-stabbing, undercutting, manipulation, mud-slinging and kitchen-sink throwing. Her campaign has played on racial fears (e.g., sending the media the picture of Obama in Kenyan dress in a visit to the country), they've twisted Obama's words and actions to make him look bad (e.g., his Ohio "present" votes) and they've dragged his name through the mud in an attempt to make him unelectable - despite the probability that that will only help McCain. How often do McCain and Clinton have to have identical attacks on Obama before someone tells her that she needs to chill out or switch parties? White house '08 prediction: McCain/Clinton. Or Clinton/Rove.
DonkeyDude | 04/19/08
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Hillary has a more liberal record than Obama. (Not counting the recent senate rankings, which only cover the past year) Hillary supporters tend to be more Die-Hard Democrats and these people will not jump ship to McCain. The massive numbers reported by the polls of people who will leave Hillary for McCain will drop dramatically if Obama gets the nomination. It is similar to when all of the Right-Wing conservatives claimed they would never support McCain, but now they are begining to come around.
Byah | 04/16/08
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