Clintons real problem, though, is not math but politics:
DEADPRESIDENTS said 05/05, 12:08 PM
Besides the votes, she needs to win the spin wars and convince heretofore sceptical superdelegates of her right to the nomination. They will be looking not only at the outcomes in North Carolina and Indiana, but also at the breakdown of the votes.
Clinton was never given a chance to win in North Carolina, so if she can get the popular vote margin down to around 5 points, it would be enough to show she still has some wind at her back. Clinton would also be helped by improving her showing among African-American voters,
She cant continue to get throttled in that demographic and still make the case that she can bring the party back together in a general election.
The 2008 Democratic primary season has contained only one true surprise: Clintons victory in New Hampshire. Almost all the other primaries and caucuses have emerged in line with polling, and with campaign and media expectations. Now, she could use another stunner.
DonkeyDude said 05/05, 05:47 PM
I am sure this will only further cement my reputation with the likes of ProudOfSmallTown as arrogant and elitist, but Clinton's spin tactics only affect the opinions of uneducated voters who are susceptible to low-information signals. Granted, this is a large portion of the American populace, but your argument is limited in scope to the superdelegates.
Superdelegates are concerned with two things: 1) Putting forth an electable candidate (both the Dems are likely to beat McCain, but that is outside the scope of this debate); and 2) Expanding the party's base for future elections - which cuts in favor of Obama.
Obama has closed the superdelegate gap lately despite all the negative press - and despite Clinton's smear tactics and nonstop spin. In fact, Clinton's spin tactics (part and parcel with her "do anything to win" campaign approach) are part of what has turned off a great deal of superdelegates.
If the candidates roughly split the remaining pledged delegates up for grabs, she needs to win 4/5 of the remaining superdelegates to win the nomination. That will not happen. Ergo, math is her problem. The surrounding spin an politics is really just infotainment at this point.
DEADPRESIDENTS said 05/05, 07:11 PM
None of these candidates will have the magic number of 2025 by the end of the primary season.
Clinton was not even considered as a force in both Indiana and NC. Now the tone has changed,every media institution is giving her Indiana and indicate that she has made significant inroads in NC.
According to the latest poll, both Democratic candidates are best positioned to beat McCain by no less than 10 points, so if Superdelegates are looking for an electable candidate, they better find another reason not the numbers.
She actually confirmed my point today when she introduced the two issues that seek to set her apart from Obama. The gas holiday, and the Iran issue. I don't agree with her on these issues but her intention is to show the difference between her and him.
She hopes to pull another NH in NC. Whether or not she is prepared to do anything to win, the point is that this is an election and each of these candidates must set themselves apart, show they are tough and ready.
If her opponents are going to be discrete about their credentials and abilities, its going to be their painful loss.
Let's be open to the possibility that Superdelegates may cause an upset.
DonkeyDude said 05/05, 11:26 PM
You seem to have forgotten the topic of the debate you started.
The math is impossible for HRC, and it doesn't matter one iota how her staff spins results, or what she says in speeches. Obama needs another 280 del's to clinch, and there are still almost 700 left. He can split the pledged del's 50/50, and he'd only need 75/277 supers to clinch. Your point supposes that she can get > 75% of the supers. Good luck.
My point, simply, is that the numbers are insurmountable, and they get worse for her with each contest.
She can spin Tuesday's results however she wants, but that does not affect the supers' take on her. I am not a superdelegate, but I can tell you almost exactly what Clinton will say tomorrow evening. She will win Indiana narrowly and say that that is a huge state and the Dems need to win over blue collar white voters to win in Nov. Obama will win NC, but she'll claim that her ability to narrow the gap is huge - nevermind that he did the same in PA.
This type of spin is nothing new, and it will not move the supers. What will? One thing (potentially): if she wins more popular votes. But that's highly unlikely. And, more relevantly to this debate, that is MATH, not spin.
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Yea, I haven't seen you in a while, this site doesn't feel the same without you. I couldn't win the gun control debate, by the way. It unfortunatley ended in a tie.
theyoungdem | 05/06/08
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It's ok youngdem. it's a tough subject from either side. my own debate with DD on a more defined version of the same subject also ended in a tie.
MorgMcA | 05/07/08
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Hillary's toast. The math just isn't there nor is the money or the Mo......it has reached a point of almost no return for her but it appears that she is going to go ahead and force the hands of the supers. Donkey Dude forgot to add one of the main reasons that the supers will back Obama. The Money. They want/need it and he has shown the best ability to get it without having to go big donors. With the money issue McCain appears to be having these days and Obama's ability to be able to tap an unlimited supply it could mean the difference come November.
Bulldoglover | 05/07/08
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What is interesting is that the former-President Clinton is more of hinderance than a help to Hillary. Someone needs to have put a shock collar on that man a long time ago if Hillary wanted and chance at being the front runner when things got going. But I agree with DD, Hillary's done.
KittyCatRep | 05/08/08
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If she learned algebra in middle school she might have one this race. Wasn't she a lawyer or something lol.
miamibadboi | 05/08/08
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I think the vote tally so far scared DP away from finishing. Gotta protect that record. ;-)
DonkeyDude | 05/09/08
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Yeah, that sucks. I've been waiting two weeks for Stew to finish our debate. Major flaw of the site.
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/10/08
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I wonder why the count down thing doesn't work, the site administrators should fix it...oh wait what site administrators
theyoungdem | 05/10/08
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Update: DeadPrez says this debate is stale and that's why he's not finishing it. Interesting, when all 4 existing arguments (on a topic HE started) were made in a span of 12 hours. And I fail to see how this is now irrelevant. DP is no better than GainSomeHonor in my book.
DonkeyDude | 05/12/08
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DonkeyDude, don't be a desperate housewife. How can you stoop that low. For the record, I'm not threatened by you or your rough-around-the-edges debating skills. In fact, I can beat you on this debate easily. I have invited you to challenge me to debate you on a fresh subject as I have made up my mind about this one. You won't because you have not started a debate since I joined here. All you do is accept other people's debates, copy text from other documents i.e. google (I have proof), campaign for votes and insult those who beat you. So you dont facinate me. Just so you know, until you formally challenge me on a debate I'm interested in, this is the last correspondence you'll ever get from me, it doesn't matter how much you provoke me. I know your type.
DEADPRESIDENTS | 05/13/08
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You're suggesting that I challenge you to a particular debate? That's kind of vague. Give me a few topics to pick from, and I'll start one. And as you can tell from my Face Off list, I have started debates. All the sh.it-talking in the world doesn't change the fact that you are a dou.chebag for bailing on this debate.
DonkeyDude | 05/13/08
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DonkeyDude proposes that we don't vote before the 6 arguments have been heard. I support him and would like everyone to join us. This will make sure that people complete their debates and not avoid finishing their debates when they are trailing in votes.
POST | 05/14/08
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Donkeydude started debates, I seem to recall him cursing since I accepted on of his debate challenges :)
theyoungdem | 05/14/08
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DP, your leaderboard paranoia has destroyed your credibility. If you're going to act petulant, at least don't deny your fixation with the leaderboard in the process. At least own it. Besides, the LB's own credibility has been reduced to garbage anyway.
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/15/08
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LOL, I wonder if he'll feel like finishing now that the votes have vanished from your score to build his, DD. AMAZING!
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/15/08
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LOL... DP is now beating you, DD. Shocking! Maybe NOW he'll finish! I wonder if he'll say, "Well, you might as well just forfeit, because I'm not gonna finish, now that PA and NC are done."
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/19/08
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Maybe there is an automated vote as time accumulates built into this site. perhaps in order to encourage people to actually finish, that'll be weird. in that case as long as DP never comes back his score could reach infinity. look out everybody the infinite scoring begins. ;)
MorgMcA | 05/20/08
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Please keep it clean. Bad words will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.
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Good to see you back, DD.
USA Pit Bull 63 | 05/05/08
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