Elephant-Donkey

smalltownPA won the Face Off.

smalltownPA vs SantaCruzer

Face Offs: 1
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Ties: 0
, PA
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Face Offs: 2
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The NC/Ind results are in...Obama's the one; Hillary is done.

smalltownPA said 05/07, 04:55 PM
Even if Hillary gets 65% of the rest of the remaining contests (there are 6 left), she still won't have enough delegates to win. But let's face it, she will not even sniff 65% of all the remaining 6 contests. Still, let's just assume she can for the sake of argument. Now, let's further assume that she also wins 65% of the remaining Superdelegates. She still falls short of the required 2025 delegates.
Realty check...It is far more likely that the trends of the elections will continue. Which is to say that Obama will win slightly better than half the remaining votes if we are to look at the last 6 contests as a whole. If that happens, Obama will easily win by amassing about 2093 delagates...that's 68 more than he needs. Meanwhile, Hillary would be floating dead in the water at just over 1900.
Think our your party and your country, Hillary. Buy a sticking calculator and step aside.

SantaCruzer said 05/08, 03:34 PM
Obama is the one, but only in the short term: he's effectively won the battle, but will lose the war. Obama's great mistake is not realizing that there's no clear exit strategy for Hillary short of seeing this through to the final June primaries, and likely a very divisive convention. This was the Democratic Party's election to lose, and with Obama at the lead, I'm afraid we've already lost. Sadly gone also is the opportunity for the best possible outcome: a Clinton / Obama "dream ticket" which would've effectively solidified the party and created a non-stop train all the way to the white house. On the contrary, as the senior stateswoman, there's no way Hillary will accept a VP slot. So the net result is a split Democratic Party, and a nominee that will not be able to fight the Republican organizational juggernaut: Obama's loose coalition of the fickle, no-show-in-the-general-election "youth vote", a black minority vote, and wine-sipping upper middle class white elitists won't cut it. Finally, don't assume Hillary supporters will support Obama (I likely will, but most won't). Welcome to John Kerry, part deux and at least four more years of a Bush in McCain clothing.

smalltownPA said 05/13, 12:30 PM
Wars are won by consistently winning the battles, which Obama has done. The Primaries were Clinton's to lose, which she did. She was the overwhelming favorite when this all started and she blew it. She thought she could ride her husband's coattails and when that didn't work, she got nasty. That too, has failed. Although, if the Democratic Party looses the general election, which I do not believe it will, you can thank Hillary and her bussiness-as-usual, negative politics. Your candidate has turned this into a divisive race and your still longing for her to win...I don't get it. By the way, have you been paying attention to the sheer volume of voters who have been showing up for the Dems? Even when the GOP had not decided on McCain, Dems were often doubling the GOP voters. Furthermore, when faced with 4 more years of Bush/ McCain, Americans who are dissatified with our current economy and foreign policies will vote Obama. If this economic trend continues by the time November rolls around, most Americans will be too afraid to vote McCain. In their gut, the GOP has long known that they would be sending one of their own to slaughter in November...thanks to Bush.

SantaCruzer said 05/14, 12:29 AM
First, most of the primaries were open primaries, so Republicans were likely voting in the Democratic primaries in high numbers. We may have a higher turn out of registered Democrats, but if they're voting for McCain it doesn't help the party (think Reagan). Second, let's look at a comparison of the "Blue" states from the 2004 election and who won the primaries:
Washington - Obama
Oregon - Obama (proj)
California - Clinton
Minnesota - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
Illinois - Obama
Michigan - Clinton
Maine - Obama
New Hampshire - Clinton
Vermont - Clinton
New York - Clinton
Pennsylvania - Clinton
Massachusetts - Clinton
Connecticut - Obama
Rhode Island - Clinton
New Jersey - Clinton
Delaware - Obama
Maryland - Obama
DC - Obama

Swing States (that went Republican, but which a Dem needs to clinch the White House):
Florida - Clinton
Michigan - Clinton
Texas - Clinton
Ohio - Clinton
Arizona - Clinton

So maybe when Hillary is done with it, she can send you her calculator so you can do the math on how your buddy Obama loses in the General Election. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm obviously not hopeful. BTW, if the Dems apportioned delegates like the Reps, Hillary would already be the nominee.

smalltownPA said 05/14, 08:46 AM
Get over it...she lost. BTW, why do Clinton supporters always try to change the rules when the rules no longer suit their wants. Also, 2004 will have little to do with this election thanks to Bush. George's approval rating is lower than any other president in history. McCain is just an older version of Bush...and McCain is certainly no Reagan, so the comparison is mute. In case you haven't heard, Florida and Michigan don't count because they willfully broke the rules and now they have to deal with the consequences. Although, I do have to concede, Hillary would have done much better if Obama was not on the ticket as with Michigan. You've got us there! Lastly, I notice that you chose to ignore my point that even though Hillary had everything in her favor early on, she still blew a seemingly insurmountable lead. Yet, you continue to cling to your girl and half heartedly wish the Dems well. I know you, like your candidate, like the negative, but enough already. Get squarely behind your party. America can not afford anything less.

SantaCruzer said 05/14, 12:51 PM
I am over it. My point (which you continue to miss) is that once again the Democratic Party may be backing a nominee that will have a very difficult task in winning the general election. [BTW, Senator Obama isn't the nominee yet. Why is it, do you think, that he can't seem to close the deal?] To your point about "getting behind the party", it's difficult to do so when it keeps shooting itself in the proverbial foot (e.g. the Florida / Michigan mess...).

To end on a positive note: Senator Obama & the Democratic Party will have an uphill battle to win back voters like me, but it is a hill we can climb. It'd be nice if we could lick our wounds and re-unify the Party. Here's hoping we can pull it off. Cheers.