theyoungdem said 05/13, 10:41 PM
Many people think that Michigan and Florida votes should be counted. The Clinton campaign even have a strong belief that they will be counted, giving them the chance to possible capture the nomination.
DNC set rules, which not only Clinton or Obama but democrats alike agreed to. These rules were broken by Florida and Michigan by moving their primaries earlier than their proper dates, thus breaking the rules set by the DNC.
The main argument, of people who want the votes to be counted, is that the votes should be counted because they feel that the people who voted in Michigan and Florida should not be ignored. I agree that they should not be ignored, but the rules were broken, they were told not to vote, those who did vote were not even the entire voting population if they were told to vote. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida, unless you count Clinton's campaigning for a little bit before the primary, and Obama was not even on the ballot for the Michigan primaries.
Why would the DNC count the votes of rule breakers and a portion, not the entire,democratic voters and when Obama was not on one ballot of one state and neither candidate campaigned fully in another state?
SantaCruzer said 05/14, 12:51 AM
I agree with all your points above (really). The only problem I have with excluding Michigan and Florida is that doing so will come back to bite the Democratic nominee in the general election. Remember that wee bit of controversy in Florida after the 2000 election?? [Side Note: For those of you college age who probably don't remember, there's an upcoming movie on HBO about it]. But I digress. I think the DNC should figure out a way to include Florida and Michigan--and they will probably do so in such a way that it really doesn't "decide" the nominee--if only for the reason that we may need both states in November.
One parting comment: To all the Democrats on this site who think any Democratic nominee will easily beat McCain, I'll remind you we all said the same thing in 2004. Granted, Obama or Clinton are heads & shoulders above Kerry, and as long as either doesn't do anything really stupid like stand up and say first thing "I'm
theyoungdem said 05/14, 04:14 PM
"I think the DNC should figure out a way to include Florida and Michigan--and they will probably do so in such a way that it really doesn't "decide" the nominee"
Well it obviously won't decide the nominee, however, it would strengthen Clinton's argument of her ability to be the nominee, though that isn't the point. If they want the votes to be counted, what way do you expect them to do it? They would have to consider the current votes, and that is what the people who want the votes to be counted, want. They want their voices heard, I truly regret the both States' democratic party decision, since people who had no say in the rule breaking unfortunatley has to suffer, but we have to respect the conditions and abide by the rules.
Let's say the votes are counted, how do you think the people who were told not to vote and didn't go vote, feel? Would they not feel cheated as well? That might also come back to "bite the Democratic nominee", its an ill-fated incident, hopefully those who voted will be able to overcome this and come together in the general election.
SantaCruzer said 05/26, 08:16 PM
Turnout for both the Florida and Michigan primaries was higher than the 2004 primaries, so those that wanted to vote did vote (even in Michigan - Obama supporters voted "uncommitted"). So nobody would be "cheated" in Florida & Michigan if they didn't vote.
As we stand right now, the delegate breakdown is as follows:
Candidate Plgd Supr Total*
Obama 1659 318 1977
Clinton 1499 280 1779
If we counted all the "won" delegates for Michigan & Florida, the count gain for Clinton would be ~175 delegates, putting her at 1954. For Obama, adding the Florida delegates would put him at 2046. Since Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan (he was, but withdrew his name - probably to curry favor with Iowa), the "uncommitted" votes should not count.
However, the total needed to win would now be 2195 delegates. With only Puerto Rico and South Dakota left (55 & 15 votes), we're still in a situation that the Super Delegates decide the nomination. With or without the delegates from MI & FL, the Super Delegates still decide. Adding delegates from MI & FL strengthen Hillary's case, but not enough to secure the nomination. Let FL & MI votes stand.
theyoungdem said 05/30, 09:11 AM
Where is your evidence that all of Obama supporters voted for him in Michigan as "uncommitted"? Where is your evidence that all those who voted as "uncommitted" was an Obama supporter? Just because numbers are higher doesn't mean everyone vote, many stayed home since they were told not to vote.
And in your second paragraph you state that Obama should not get any delegates from Michigan. In your first paragraph you state that the uncommitted in Michigan were Obama supporters. So what are you for? Making the votes count? Or giving Hillary more delegates?
You're ignoring many things. This isn't a general election, the two states broke the party rules, the party is a private organization. 48 states followed those rules, which is why their delegates are being seated.
If you want to seat the delegate and forget the fact that these two states broke the rules, then you ignore crucial factors, such as voters being told not to vote and Obama not even being on the ticket.
You're argument is that from Michigan the delegates should just go to Hillary! And Obama should get none? So you just don't want the faulty votes to count, you want them counted unfairly.
SantaCruzer said 05/30, 12:08 PM
It's common knowledge that Obama supporters were urged to vote "uncommitted" in Michigan (do a Google search on "Michigan Uncommitted Votes" and read away...)
Yes, many people probably stayed home in Michigan & Florida, but you can't 'ignore' that fact that the turnout was significantly higher in both states than the 2004 primaries. So my take (and many analysts agree) is that folks voted because they felt their votes would eventually count, and that the DNC would back down.
Obama & all the candidates had a choice to stay on the ballots, or to remove themselves. Why did Obama remove his name from Michigan, but not Florida? (Appease Iowa?) Since Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, he shouldn't get any of the votes. Period. It's not "unfair" for uncommitted votes to remain exactly that. The votes should stand as they were cast.
I agree, this isn't the general election. But you're "ignoring" the fact that Dems must be able to win swing states like Florida and Michigan in the general election. Enforcing the ridiculous penalty on Florida & Michigan will cost Dems swing votes in those two states, likely the states themselves, and potentially the election. Wake up.
I am from Michigan and I have a problem with theyoungdems argument. The people of Michigan and Florida didn't decide to have their primary early. The Democratic party did. The votes in these states obviously mean something, and we should have our votes counted. Even if the party did break the rules, they had a good reason to. Why should 2 states like Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which are very small and not very diverse, have such a large impact? Michigan and Florida are both large, demographically diverse states that paint a better picture of how voters think than Iowa and New Hampshire.
TheChocolateBearFactory | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentI agree Chocalate. Have you written those responsible who rendered your vote silent? I think a rotation ought to be established with regard to the order in which the primaries will take place. Having said that, the leaders of the Michigan and Florida knew the consequences of their actions. They chose the wrong forum to voice their concerns. It is your job to make them aware of their errors in their next elections.
smalltownPA | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentDonkeyDude proposes that we don't vote before the 6 arguments have been heard. I support him and would like everyone to join us. This will make sure that people complete their debates and not avoid finishing their debates when they are trailing in votes.
POST | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentChocolate. The states did not have a better argument than other states for moving up the calender against the instruction of the national committees of both parties, they could have moved to Feb 5th along with several other states (and both would have garnered significant attention) but the legislators chose not to. The consequence of their decisions were clear and so they should accept responsibility. To count an election that was declared void is simply nonsense, since the number of voters who did not partake in the vote because they were bluntly told the election didn't count cannot be estimated. Both states actually buck the trend across the rest of the nation, where democrat turnout has been far greater than republican. The only other states where republican turnout was greater were Arizona, Alaska, Alabama and Utah. The mistakes of the DNC and the state legislators is obvious with hindsight, but given nobody from the Clinton campaign was complaining about the disenfranchisement of Florida and Michigan until they started losing to Obama her current stance is posturing to attempt to save a lost campaign.
Tickers | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentChocolate, you are suggesting that the party allow people to break the rules without consequences. This, as any good parent knows, will only incentivize future rule-breaking and is a terrible idea. However, you are right about the undue influence of certain states; but that is best left to the DNC Rules Committee's ability to re-design the rules in the wake of this mess - which they will do in response to public demand.
DonkeyDude | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentYoungdem, you have gotten worlds better at this. If you really are 17, I am thoroughly impressed.
DonkeyDude | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentThanks donkeydude, means alot, I am 17 haha, you'll see when you accept my friend request that I'm yet to graduate from high school, which is in two weeks actually.
theyoungdem | 05/14/08
Report Offensive CommentDoes it really matter what the date of the primaries was, the 2004 election was rigged by bush anyway and there wasn't exactly a revloution then so I would suggest that an argument over the dates of primaries is fairly trivial.
Top Hat | 05/16/08
Report Offensive CommentSorry It was the 2000 election that was riged Bush won 2004 fair n square (probably)
Top Hat | 05/16/08
Report Offensive CommentClinton is a tough contender against McCain, even if I have to say so myself, I'm happy she lost the Primaries. Now McCain will have an easy victory against Hussein Obama, it's going to be a walk over. ****!! the Florida and Michigan delegates, all the better for Republicans. It's still going to be a while before we have a black or woman President in this country. McCain 08'
dirtythoughts | 05/16/08
Report Offensive CommentMcCain is going to be a challenge for the dems to beat. including FL and MI (is that Michigan or Mississippi, i forget) without aknowlegding the rule-breaking elections would seem smart, for example a second primary for the states, costly yes, but it might pay off in Nov.
MorgMcA | 05/17/08
Report Offensive CommentI am surprised that no one is commenting about the way the Republicans completed their primary including the disputes of FL and MI by halving their delegate count. Seems fair and smart choices to me. If the democrats cant even come up with decent ideas for their primaries without offending large sections of the society (their own), how can we expect them to come up with any decent idea for the country. What would be wrong if I assume their policies for the country would be as half baked and not well thought out as their primaries????
ame | 05/18/08
Report Offensive CommentThe republican method is really only wise because they did not have a close contest. If one *assumed* that Florida and Michigan were penalised by having the delegate representatives (and then we assume the same voter turnout and preference and give Obama the uncommitted votes from Michigan) then Clinton would pick up 88 delegates and Obama 62 delegates. Surely at this point Clinton would be arguing that the delegates should be seated in full in order to pick up another 26 delegates.
Tickers | 05/19/08
Report Offensive CommentFL and MI are going to cost them big time. Good for Reps. If that rules committee doesn't solve this problem, they are toast. Tickers, if this affected any other candidate I'd say your idea of sitting MI and FL delegates would work, but you have a bigger problem here, you are dealing with Clinton. If your idea is endorsed, she'll argue that the Superdelegates who pledged their support to Obama based their support on the fact that he was ahead and had you recognised the MI and FL she would have been ahead giving her the support of Superdelegates. F*ck your arrogance (Dems) caused all this chaos, and you cant solve it without offending someone.
dirtythoughts | 05/20/08
Report Offensive CommentI wasn't suggesting any process, but pointing out that penalising the states in the same manner as the republicans did would still likely have led to a similar argument once it became clear that the stripped delegates could be pivotal in changing the result.
Tickers | 05/21/08
Report Offensive CommentActually CNN polls showed that no democrats in Florida or Michigan said they won't vote in the general election because of this rule breaking and not seating of delegates. So you're argument is basically saying that Hillary should have more undeserved delegates. Makes sense...not really.
theyoungdem | 05/31/08
Report Offensive CommentI don't have much of an opinion on this, me being a republican from New Jersey and all, but I do have a problem with Santa Cruz's argument. How can you say all "uncommited votes" were votes for Obama? Could they not be for Edwards? Or perhaps a dem who simply doesn't like Hillary?
strongleader | 05/31/08
Report Offensive CommentPlease keep it clean. Bad words will get filtered, and offensive comments will be removed.
I guess my not-so-kind paraphrasing of John Kerry's opening remarks at the Democratic Convention were "filtered". :o)
SantaCruzer | 05/14/08
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